World Cup probability.

Method. Each tournament is simulated match by match. Win expectancy comes from Elo ratings (eloratings.net, June 2026 snapshot; co-hosts +50). Goals are drawn from Poisson distributions whose means split a 2.7-goal match by Elo odds — so wins, draws and goal difference all fall out of the same dice. Knockout draws go to extra time, then a shootout with a mild Elo lean. Best-third allocation to the round-of-32 bracket follows the FIFA slot constraints via backtracking. Group assignments per the Final Draw (Dec 2025) and the March 2026 playoffs. Big runs fan out across your CPU cores via Web Workers — a million tournaments in seconds. During the tournament the page polls FIFA's public match feed every five minutes: finished matches are locked into every simulation, real knockout pairings override simulated standings, and the title odds show their movement against the pre-tournament baseline. Momentum mode lets confidence build within each simulated tournament — winning teams get slightly stronger as they go, struggling teams slightly weaker (technically: Elo is updated after every simulated match, K=50). The what-if slider re-simulates a single team at an adjusted rating.